There are indications that perhaps some of the COVID models overestimated the risk–this miscalculation, which created a bizarre and somewhat low-IQ response, the lockdown, has led to widespread and dangerous economic harm.
Second, it appears that blue states have been hit by COVID more than the red ones. Population density probably accounts for most of this. The interesting question is, once again, whether more stringent controls and lockdowns are worth it.
Dr. John Ioannidis, the C.F. Rehnborg Chair in Disease Prevention at Stanford University, has come under fire in recent months for his opposition to state-ordered lockdowns, which he says could cause social harms well beyond their presumed benefits.
In an interview with Greek Reporter , Ioannidis said that the mathematical models on which the lockdowns were based were horribly flawed.
“There are already more than 50 studies that have presented results on how many people in different countries and locations have developed antibodies to the virus,” Ioannidis, a Greek-American physician, told Greek Reporter. “Of course none of these studies are perfect, but cumulatively they provide useful composite evidence. A very crude estimate might suggest that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases.”
Ioannidis said medical data suggest the fatality risk is far lower than earlier estimates had led policymakers to believe and “is almost 0%” for individuals under 45 years old. The median fatality rate is roughly 0.25 percent, however, because the risk “escalates substantially” for individuals over 85 and can be as high as 25 percent for debilitated people in nursing homes.
In Virginia, Governor Northams draconian efforts to protect the wrong people, have led to many elderly in extended care to go unprotected.
Because of this, Ioannidis sees mass lockdowns of entire populations as a mistake, though he says they may have made sense when experts believed the fatality rate of COVID-19 was as high as 3-5 percent.
In March, in a widely read STAT article, Ioannidis said it was uncertain how long lockdowns could be maintained without serious consequences.
Note: Wake Forest Baptist Health has found that between 12-14% of people tested in North Carolina have antibodies for the coronavirus — meaning they have been exposed to the virus — with most of them showing little or no symptoms. The virus is much more widespread than previously thought.
“One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health,” Ioannidis wrote. “Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric.”