What is the true infection fatality rate of COVID-19, broken down by age and health status? This is a simple question for which the CDC should have a clear answer by now, accompanied by a readable chart – a chart showing everyone’s demographic risk assessment so that we can better target our infection mitigation efforts. Nobody in Virginia, especially in Cape Charles has bothered to do this either. Wonder why?
The chart below, prepared by the Economisch Statistische Berichten (ESB), a Dutch economics magazine, lays out the infection fatality rate for the Dutch population-based on age bracket. The data were calculated from an antibody test of 4,000 blood donors conducted by Dutch blood bank Sanquin to see how many have been infected for the purpose of donating blood plasma to those currently suffering from the virus. The data were presented to the Dutch House of Representatives in mid-April by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM).
Based on this serology test, they were able to determine that 3% of the population (at the time) were infected and were therefore able to divide the numerator of those who died of COVID-19 by the extrapolated denominator of those who were likely infected and break out the infection fatality rate by age group.
From the asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic rates to the hospital and fatality rates divided by age. You have to get to the 50-59 age group just to reach a 0.1% fatality rate, the level often cited as the overall death rate for the seasonal flu. Those are all lower odds than an individual has of dying in a giving year of any cause and in the case of an average 50-year-old, five times lower.
The Netherlands has actually experienced a 30% higher death rate per capita than America. So the numbers are likely not any higher here for those under 70. A brand-new study from France also shows very similar estimates of fatality rates, at least for those under 60.
Another research group in the Netherlands did a second serology test that broke down even more groups and came up with almost identical results:
The death rate doesn’t even climb above .1% until you reach over 70, with a steep growth of risk over 75 and 80. Even those death rates might need to be cut in half for those outside nursing homes, given that half the deaths in most countries are in senior care facilities.
Why has Cape Charles not published data that shows just what the risk really is? Why are we still closed when the risk is very low for people under 60? What are they hiding?