The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is scheduled to release its special report on the risks and benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, or 2.7°F, above preindustrial levels.
The report is expected to contain sobering findings of how difficult it will be to meet the 1.5-degree target, which is an aspirational goal contained in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Every country in the world — except the U.S. — intends to honor the 2015 agreement, and the report will help inform negotiators in the next round of climate talks, set for December.
- We are currently on track for global warming of between 2.7 to 3.7°C by 2100, according to Kelly Levin, a scientist with the nonpartisan World Resources Institute.
- To meet the 1.5-degree target, we’d need to reach net zero emissions by mid-century, and negative emissions thereafter, using carbon removal tech.
- Current emissions projections show the world is on track to increase emissions through 2030.
Some climate scientists are making clear that the 1.5-degree target, which is seen as low-lying island nations’ best hope for long-term survival, is effectively out of reach.
“Overall, the idea that we can limit warming to 1.5°C is so ridiculous that it doesn’t seem to even merit thinking about it.”
— Andrew Dessler, climate scientist at Texas A&M University
“It is technically feasible for me to fly to the moon in the next 10 years, but it is clearly not feasible in a broader sense. With 1.5°C it is potentially feasible from a technical perspective, but unless the political, social and technical aspects of feasibility are aligned, it is not going to happen.”
— Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Norway
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Agree, because I’ve witnessed it on both sides.
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