The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a powerful atmospheric cycle that occurs in the Pacific Ocean along the Equator and weakens trade winds that blow from east to west. This allows warm surface water in the Pacific to slosh back east towards the Americas. It reduces the amount of cold water upwelling that usually occurs off the coast of South America. This natural phenomenon can have intense atmospheric and oceanographic effects, such as increased precipitation, flooding, and warmer ocean temperatures. These impacts vary by geographic location but are typically felt most directly by regions within the Pacific Basin.
In June 2026, NOAA forecasters announced that El Niño had formed in the tropical Pacific. As of October, they have predicted a greater than 83 percent chance of a “very strong event” during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. Experts expect this event will persist through early spring 2027, with the potential for observable impacts in marine ecosystems for months or even years afterwards.
Scientists still can’t predict exactly what will occur during this period. But NOAA Fisheries can draw upon historic observations and an abundance of data collected throughout previous El Niño events to suggest likely impacts across our ecosystems. Additionally, we are actively deploying tools and strategies to monitor and predict El Niño’s impact on the marine environment across the United States, including:
- Surveys aboard NOAA vessels and aircraft
- Ocean sampling using uncrewed vehicles such as gliders
- State-of-the-art ocean and biological response forecasting models
- Cooperative research engaging local commercial and recreational fishermen
Historically, the Eastern United States has not felt the impacts of El Niño as intensely as other parts of the country, because El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean basin. It tends to bring warmer temperatures, milder winters, and reduced hurricane risk to the Northeast. While experts anticipate the effects of this El Niño will be largely similar to what we’ve seen in the past, current oceanographic and atmospheric trends in the region could lead to departures from the norm.
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