GLOUCESTER POINT, Va. — A new forecasting system developed by researchers at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is giving Chesapeake Bay users a way to look several days into the future to better understand changing water conditions before heading onto the Bay.
The Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System, known as CBEFS, provides short-term forecasts for water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, water clarity, harmful algal blooms and marine heat waves. Researchers say the information is designed to help recreational boaters, anglers, commercial watermen, aquaculture operations and scientists better anticipate changing conditions.
Unlike traditional weather forecasts that predict temperature and rainfall, CBEFS focuses on what is happening beneath the surface.
“CBEFS is basically a weather forecast but for the Chesapeake Bay,” said Marjy Friedrichs, a professor at William & Mary’s Batten School and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, who leads the team managing the system.
The forecasts combine real-time observations with advanced computer models developed by VIMS researchers and NOAA partners to predict environmental conditions several days in advance. Scientists say those predictions can provide valuable insight into the health of the Bay while helping users plan trips on the water.
Among the key indicators included in the forecasts are dissolved oxygen levels and water clarity, both of which can directly affect fish behavior.
“Fish aren’t going to be where there’s low oxygen,” Friedrichs said. “Fish need to see the lure, so they need information about water clarity.”
Those forecasts could prove especially useful for recreational anglers and charter captains searching for productive fishing areas, as well as researchers monitoring the overall condition of the Chesapeake Bay.
The system also includes forecasts for harmful algal blooms and marine heat waves, environmental events that have become increasingly important as climate change and nutrient pollution continue to affect coastal ecosystems. Early warning of those conditions could help resource managers, aquaculture operators and the public respond more quickly when environmental conditions deteriorate.
For some commercial users, environmental forecasting has already become an essential part of daily operations.
Mike Fisher, owner of Ragged Island Oyster in Carrollton, said he routinely relies on NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System to monitor water temperature, salinity and tides throughout the growing season.
When purchasing oyster seed or juvenile oysters from other locations, Fisher said those forecasts help determine whether conditions where the oysters originated are compatible with the waters at his farm, improving the chances the shellfish will thrive after being moved.
Researchers say CBEFS builds on those existing forecasting capabilities by offering a broader suite of environmental information that can benefit a wider range of Chesapeake Bay users.
The launch comes as scientists and resource managers place increasing emphasis on real-time environmental monitoring to improve fisheries management, support aquaculture, protect public health and track the Bay’s ongoing restoration efforts. By providing forecasts similar to the weather reports many people already consult before leaving home, researchers hope the new system will become a routine planning tool for anyone who depends on the Chesapeake Bay.
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