Today was probably the worst day for the Armed Forces of Ukraine since February 2022. The Russians started the day off by destroying two HIMARS launchers at their hide site in Sumy. This has likely ended GMLRS support for the Kursk operation temporarily.
Next to emerge was a video of a MiG-29 struck at an airfield near Dnipropetrovsk, just as it was being armed and the pilot had climbed in for preflight. Once again the Russians coldly waited to cause maximum casualties among key AFU personnel. * initially reported as an Su-24.
13 Ukrainian soldiers were caught on camera surrendering in Kursk, and today was the first day I didn’t even hear substantive rumors of new AFU advances in the area. Instead they seem to have lost considerable ground.
Not one but two Patriot batteries were struck in the vicinity of Dnipropetrovsk, substantially reducing threats to Russian aviation, drones and missiles in the Dniper Bend area. These systems will not be replaced easily, and Ukraine does not have many to begin with.
An IRIS-T and SA-3 system were struck in Sumy, the former by Iskander and the latter by aerial glide bomb… begging the question of what exactly this ancient system is doing in Ukraine beyond drawing fire.
The Ukrainians counterpunched by finishing off a damaged bridge in the Glushkovo area (immediately west of their current salient) with a glide bomb or ATACMS strike. The Russians had a pontoon up to replace it within hours.
They also apparently launched an ATACMS strike aimed at the Kerch Bridge last night, with 12 missiles reported. All were shot down by air defenses. Donetsk was less lucky, with a “big box store” in the west of the city catching fire and burning down after a Ukrainian attack. Once again, Ukraine attacks civilian targets.
Russian forces are continuing to advance west of Donetsk City, with a spearhead reaching for the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk, a general advance east of Ugledar that threatens to eventually swamp the longtime AFU stronghold, and additional progress towards Toretsk.
Capping the day off, official Russian press made detailed accusations that the Ukrainians are preparing to attack the Kursk and Zaporozhie Nuclear Power Plants with dirty bombs, presumably in some kind of desperate bid to secure renewed support by accuring Russia of the deed.
With their forces stretched to the breaking point, the Ukrainian leadership has made a series of desperate moves hoping to shake the foundations of the war and gain some kind of advantage. Thus far they are not paying out.
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