Why are so many people pessimistic about the world population and believe we are devouring all of our natural resources despite the progress we as a race have made in the last 50 years? As the Joker asked in the film The Dark Knight, “Why so Serious?” Pessimists (mainly left-leaning neo-socialists) ask for governments to intervene, but the interventions are either unnecessary or harmful to the progress made possible by the market economy.
According to the Global Footprint Network, humans have already used a year’s worth of Earth’s resources in 2018. “Earth Overshoot Day” has crept up the calendar from December 29th in 1970 to August 1st 2018. “The date of Earth Overshoot Day is calculated by comparing humanity’s total yearly consumption (Ecological Footprint) with Earth’s capacity to regenerate renewable natural resources in that year (biocapacity).” – See Global Footprint Network.
This sounds pretty bad, like we are a giant spider sucking the life out of the planet. Of course, most that comment on Earth Overshoot Day typically blame capitalism and overpopulation as root causes of our resource overconsumption. You know, private businesses have no incentive to maintain resources — greed leads them to exploit the earth for profits today with no regard for our future. The lack of government-provided birth control and sex education have caused birth rates in some parts of the world to remain high, putting undue strain on our scarce resources.
Let’s pump the brakes on that–entrepreneurs disregard the future availability of some productive resources because they are not in the business of making money today — they are interested in earning profits across time and they will use their resources as need be.
If a resource is exhausted, that means that the entrepreneurs have satisfied consumer demands when consumers wanted them satisfied. Producers are subject to the consumers.
But, we as consumers are also interested in the maintenance of resources. The way we balance the use of resources today and tomorrow depends on the premium we place on present consumption over future consumption.
We are more likely to save and maintain resources when we expect the future consumption to be greater or better. This is why we don’t eat all of the grapes today but use some to make wine or jelly for future consumption. It’s also why farmers are careful to rotate crops and not over-farm their land so that it will be as productive as possible for as long as possible.
As a policy, promoting private property and allowing entrepreneurs to utilize and experiment with new technologies that might decrease costs (using fewer resources) and increase production (making the future payoff greater) is really the best way to maintain our resources. Productivity is not a drain on the Earth’s resources, but a great incentive to entrepreneurs and consumers to save and invest for the future.
Central baking, which uses expansionary monetary policy can be the fly in the ointment. Inflationary environments lead to higher rates of consumption because holding on to cash while prices are rising is a value losing endeavor. Credit expansion also causes entrepreneurs to waste productive resources by pursuing the wrong lines of production — consider the empty mansions in the wake of the Fed-fueled housing bubble that popped in 2007–2008.
It really ain’t so bad
Indicators of human well-being show that the world is much better off with 7.6 billion people in 2018 than we were with half that in the early 1970s. Earth’s population has doubled, but the share of the population in extreme poverty has been slashed from about 60% in 1970 to less than 10% today. The illiteracy rate has shrunk from 44% to 14% since 1970. The number of people without access to improved water sources has halved just since 1990. The global average life expectancy has increased by over 12 years since 1973. If you are doubtful that humans are broadly and significantly better off compared to 1970 (see ourworldindata.org).
BP estimated that there are 1696.6 billion barrels of proved oil reserves(good for about 50 years). That’s how it appears now, however, demand will more than likely fall, while technology will make production more efficient. New technologies will make inaccessible oil reserves accessible.
As a note, net electricity production from nuclear sources has increased 3473% from 1970 to 2013, based on data from the Earth Policy Institute.
We are wealthier and more productive than ever and we seem to be maintaining and even expanding Earth’s capacity to meet our needs.
It is the abject pessimism of the left about the world population and our natural resources, despite the progress we’ve made just in the last 50 years, that will lead us into darkness. They want less individual control, and more statist governmental control.
This will lead to less overall prosperity and will negate the progress made possible by the market economy.
Why so serious?
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Makes me remember Alfred E. Neuman, the famous cover boy of the American humor magazine Mad, and his now-familiar signature phrase “What, me worry?”
Or Bobby McFerrin with “Don’t Worry Be Happy”:
(Ooh, ooh ooh ooh oo-ooh ooh oo-ooh) be happy
(Ooh, ooh ooh ooh oo-ooh ooh oo-ooh) don’t worry, be happy
(Ooh, ooh ooh ooh oo-ooh ooh oo-ooh) don’t worry…
I just had five-and-a-half inches of rain in the gauge the other day, but, hey, so what, it’s just some water, is all, and down in Albany, there were streets flooded so that cars were just about submerged, but that is normal now, so nothing to really get all that concerned about, and it will be great for the GDP repairing all that damage and replacing those flooded cars with new ones, which will give a surge to automobile production in America, which in turn will give a good goose to the GDP, so that is a win-win-win all the way around.
NBC News had a story entitled “Flooding in Lynchburg, Virginia, prompts fears of dam failure, leads to evacuations” by Elizabeth Chuck on 3 August 2018 where we were told as follows:
Days of torrential rains have left a dam near Lynchburg, Virginia, at risk of “imminent failure,” prompting evacuations in the area.
Earlier in the evening, up to 6 inches of rain fell within a matter of hours, the National Weather Service said, swelling College Lake beyond capacity.
The area has been pounded for days with rain, and the NWS warned early Friday that there was the possibility of more showers and thunderstorms through Friday night, with up to 3 more inches of precipitation.
The strong storms were part of severe weather along the East Coast, where 36 million people were under a flash flood warning or watch from Georgia up to New England.
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Which reminds me “Into Each Life Some Rain Must Fall” by The Ink Spots, which segues right into “There’ll be a hot time in the old town tonight,” as we see from The Telegraph article “Heatwave Europe on verge of 48C record as temperatures put Britain in the shade” by Henry Samuel, Paris, 4 August 2018, as follows:
Scorching Europe is putting Britain’s heatwave in the shade as temperatures risk surpassing the continent’s all-time high of 48 degrees Celsius this weekend, according to meteorologists.
While most areas were due to peak on Friday, Portugal, Spain and France faced even hotter weather over the weekend.
Lisbon could be hotter than Death Valley, forecasters said, after Portugal topped Europe’s temperature scales on Friday with 45.2C recorded at Abrantes, some 93 miles northeast of the capital.
The hot air mass from North Africa, which has brought with it a yellowish hue from the Sahara, could see Europe break its hottest ever recorded temperature, which was 48C in Athens in 1977.
Spain is not far behind on the heat front, with many areas expected to remain above 40C at least until Sunday, and could rise a further two or three degrees.
With two thirds of France on heatwave alert, the nuclear power station at Fessenheim has had to reduce production to avoid overheating water taken from and returned its grand canal.
Northern Europe is also suffering.
Sweden’s official tallest point is set to change amid record temperatures, as it faces wildfire risks as far as the Arctic circle.
Scientists said a glacier on Mount Kebnekaise, the Scandinavian country’s highest peak at 6,925 feet, 10 inches, is melting and is no longer Sweden’s tallest point.
Authorities on both sides of the Baltic Sea, in Sweden and Poland, have advised against swimming due to a huge bloom of heat-fuelled toxic algae.
As for Italy, its dairy sector says cows are producing 15 per cent less milk to due to the dry grass.
The drop couldn’t come at a worse time given that ice cream consumption has gone through the roof – up 30 per cent.
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But hey, we don’t live there, so that is no skin off our nose, but myt goodness, isn’t it hot up here to the north of you?
But wait, I forgot, it’s summer, so that is nothing to get upset about, and all those air conditioners running will be damn good for raising utility output, which will give the GDP another good goose.
And how about the Los Angeles Times story “Record heat in California is no fluke, experts warn” by Rong-Gong Lin II and Javier Panzar on 5 August 2017, as follows:
At Scripps Pier in San Diego, the surface water reached the highest temperature in 102 years of records, 78.8 degrees.
Palm Springs had its warmest July on record, with an average of 97.4 degrees.
Death Valley experienced its hottest month on record, with the average temperature hitting 108.1.
Across California, the nighttime brought little relief, recording the highest minimum temperature statewide of any month since 1895, rising to 64.9.
California has been getting hotter for some time, but July was in a league of its own.
The intense heat fueled fires across the state, from San Diego County to Redding, that have burned more than 1,000 homes and killed eight.
It brought heat waves that overwhelmed electrical systems, leaving swaths of Los Angeles without power for days.
California endured its warmest summer on record last year.
All-time temperature records have been topped in recent months — San Francisco notched 106 degrees in September; downtown L.A. recorded its hottest Thanksgiving Day on record at 92 degrees.
On July 6, all-time temperature records were set at the University of California, Los Angeles (111), Burbank and Santa Ana (114), and Van Nuys (117).
Chino hit 120 degrees, the highest ever recorded at an automated surface observing system in the Ontario, Riverside or Chino areas.
It was the warmest July on record in Fresno; for 26 consecutive days that month, temperatures reached or exceeded 100 degrees — the longest continuous stretch on record, said Brian Ochs, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.
In terms of average temperature, it was the warmest July on record in San Luis Obispo (69.5), Oxnard (73.1), Camarillo (74.6), Long Beach (77.9), Van Nuys (83.6), Lancaster (87.2) and Palmdale (87.8).
Anaheim saw its second-warmest July (81.3); Newport Beach, its fourth warmest (71.8); and San Diego, its fifth (75.2), said weather service meteorologist Samantha Connolly.
July’s exceptional heat puts the state on track to be in the running for the warmest summer on record, exceeding the record broken just last year, said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain.
“This is not some fluke.”
“This is part of a sustained trend,” Swain said.
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So there we have it, people, go back home, there’s nothing to worry about.
It’s just the new normal, so we will all adjust, and things will be just rosy.