Why such a bad jobs report, again?
With massive monetary and fiscal support and a government deficit of $2.77 trillion job creation falls significantly short of previous recoveries and the employment situation is significantly worse than it was in 2019.
It gets worse. Real wages are in the basement. Average hourly earnings have risen 4.7 percent in 2021, but inflation is 6.8 percent, sending real wages to negative territory and the worst reading since 2011.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, people not in the labor force who currently want a job did not change in December, at 5.7 million-717,000 higher than in February 2020.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for twenty-seven weeks or more) remains at 2 million in December, or 887,000 higher than in February 2020. Long-term unemployed accounted for 31.7 percent of unemployed.
Stagnant labor participation in the middle of a strong recovery and the second-largest deficit on record. Wut?
A large number of resignations is not positive but is more evidence of a stricken labor market where hundreds of thousands of Americans cannot afford to go to work because the costs outweigh their salary. This is the full side effect of inflation.
This does not bold well for American workers. High inflation and higher taxes will limit future job opportunities, especially among small and medium enterprises — small businesses will continue to suffer rising input prices and weaker margins.
And you would think the ROCKET SCIENTISTS on Washington, D.C. would know this cold, because it really doesn’t take an economics Ph.D. from Princeton to understand it.
The problem for Washington is all those TRILLIONS is has pumped into the economy in such a short time.
Like the Weimar Republic.
According to the government itself, the personal savings in the United States exceeded 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020, with a total population of 333 million, so based on that, who needs to work, and why would they want to, what with all the mandates that they have to get vaccinated or else.
**** that, say people, makes more sense to just stay home.
In the meantime, watch the cost of heating oil and gasoline continue to rise as the big squeeze is on:
Rigzone
“Oil Rally Continues to Seven Year High”
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Oil surged to the highest level in seven years as robust demand and strained supplies make physical markets run hot in the world’s largest consuming region.
Adding to bullish indicators, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its Brent forecasts through 2022 and 2023, and predicted $100 oil in the third quarter.
Oil’s rally poses a challenge for consuming nations and central banks as they try to stave off inflation while supporting global growth.
In particular, it’s a headache for U.S. President Joe Biden as his efforts to tame gasoline prices by tapping emergency stockpiles — and by cajoling OPEC — fail to yield results.
Meanwhile in Washington, the White House plans to continue monitoring prices in the context of global growth and hold discussions with OPEC+ countries as needed, National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horne said in a statement on Tuesday.
Increased gasoline prices have been a major driver of inflation during Biden’s term, and the White House has sought to contain costs for motorists.
Futures in New York closed up at $85.43 a barrel, the highest since October 2014.
Reuters
“U.S. home builder sentiment dips; New York state factory activity plummets”
By Lucia Mutikani
January 18, 2022
Other data showed factory activity in New York state slumped this month amid surging COVID-19 infections, but manufacturers remained upbeat about business conditions over the next six months.
The reports supported views that the economy started the year on a soft note because of high inflation, shortages and raging coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant.
“This is a reminder that COVID still holds sway over the recovery,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
“U.S. supply chain dynamics didn’t improve at the end of 2021, and early data suggest they’ve only worsened in 2022.”
A separate report from the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday showed its “Empire State” index of current business conditions plunged 32.6 points to a reading of -0.7 this month.
This was the first negative reading since June 2020.
A reading below zero signals a contraction in the New York manufacturing sector.
Manufacturers reported a sharp decline in orders.
The survey’s new orders index tumbled 32 points to a reading of -5.0.
Rigzone
“Oil Fell Friday but Up on Week”
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, January 21, 2022
As prices rise, much of Wall Street has been growing steadily more bullish.
Morgan Stanley has joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in forecasting $100 oil later this year, and Bank of America reiterated that it expects oil to hit $120 a barrel by the summer.
Oil’s rally has also caught the eye of the White House as it poses a political risk for President Joe Biden.
The U.S. is considering accelerating the release of strategic reserves, but many of Biden’s options to address the rally would be limited and likely short-lived.
CNBC
“10-year Treasury yield rises above 1.85% after Fed signals a rate hike in March and more after that”
Yun Li, Hannah Miao
Jan. 26, 2022
Powell said that there’s a risk that inflation will not decline back toward its pre-pandemic levels any time soon, and that the rise in prices could accelerate.
“Inflation risks are still to the upside in the views of most FOMC participants, and certainly in my view as well,” Powell said.
“There’s a risk that the high inflation we are seeing will be prolonged.”
“There’s a risk that it will move even higher.”
CNBC
“Inflation surges 7.5% on an annual basis, even more than expected and highest since 1982”
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
February 10, 2022
Consumer prices surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.
The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared with a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
It was the highest reading since February 1982.
Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.
On a percentage basis, fuel oil rose the most in January, surging 9.5% as part of a 46.5% year-over-year increase.
Energy costs overall were up 0.9% for the month and 27% on the year.
Food costs jumped 0.9% for the month and are up 7% over the past year.
Welcome to goofball Joe Biden’s Weimar Republic-style economy, where you will soon need a wheelbarrow to carry enough cash in to hopefully be able to buy a loaf a day-old bread, assuming you can find any on the 1950’s Soviet Union-style bare shelves the Biden administration is providing us with:
Reuters
“U.S. consumer prices post largest annual gain in 40 years as inflation becomes widespread”
By Lucia Mutikani
February 10, 2022
WASHINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in January, leading to the biggest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, fueling financial markets speculation for a hefty 50 basis points interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month.
High inflation, which has overshot the Fed’s 2% target, could imperil Biden’s economic agenda.
Biden in a statement acknowledged the hardships American families are facing, but noted that “there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge.”
Food prices rose 0.9%, with the cost of food consumed at home increasing 1.0%.
There were strong increases in the prices of cereals and bakery products, dairy, fruits and vegetables.
Electricity prices jumped 4.2%, offsetting cheaper gasoline and natural gas.
Trillions of dollars in pandemic relief fired up spending, which ran against capacity constraints as the coronavirus sidelined workers needed to produce and move goods to consumers.
But wage gains are being wiped out by inflation.
Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation fell 3.1% in January from a year earlier.
According to economists at Moody’s Analytics, inflation was costing the average household over $250 per month.