Gov. Ralph Northam lifted a mandatory evacuation order on Friday that had been in place all week in anticipation of Hurricane Florence.
On Monday evening, residents of state-designated Zone A around Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore were told to leave due to threats largely of flooding from storm surge.
The rescinding of the order came as the National Weather Service also lifted tropical storm warnings for the region.
Still, one has to wonder if the entire situation could have been handled better.
For those that follow Wrisk.com, as well as tracking the European model, by late Monday, it was apparent Flo was not tracking close to our location. Landfall was looking like Wrightsville, Wilmington or Myrtle Beach, or even further south. Unfortunately, orders to evacuate were made 5 days prior to landfall.
The order to evacuate sent everything into a tailspin, forcing mass closures and unnecessary loss of millions of dollars for businesses, and lost wages for workers. Schools were shut down and sporting events had to be canceled.
Of course, you can’t put a price on lives, hindsight is always 20/20…now that we’ve said the right things, let’s just say it–Northam’s issuing a mandatory evacuation this time was a huge blunder. Maybe start with a voluntary evacuation, and if the scenario becomes more imminent, a mandatory evac? In the Carolinas, yes you had better run…but up here?
Just to be clear, Donald Trump and colluding Russians were not involved, so don’t even try to go there.
Video: Wait for it. To show just how much people overreact sometimes, watch the drama unfold in this Weather Channel video:
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Boy, how these public officials hype these storms.
You would have thought the end of the world was coming with this one.
I kept hearing the governor of N. Carolina, I believe it was, Roy Cooper, telling people that the storm was going to keep getting stronger as it approached land, when the opposite is what happened.
So yes, one has to wonder if these things could be handled a whole lot better.
It is borderline hysteria, approaching harassment. Socialist, I mean Sheep, love to be herded.
Yes they do!
And they wonder why their called FAKE NEWS! LMAO!
Unfortunately our governor suffers from premature evacuation.
Wonder if it’s covered in the new expanded Medicaid bill.
Good one!!!!!!!!!!!
Typical, Liberal, Drama Queen!
Hindsight is always better. It sounds as if these people do not believe stoplights are worthwhile. They would if they ran them and were injured or a family member was killed. The Governor did what appeared to be the best and safest choice.
If you have not noticed how every winter, summer, spring or fall storm has been hyped up over, the last 25 years, for the sheep…then you must be a blind sheep.
Pitiful ain’t it??????
The Eastern Shore survived many decades without the need of either, liberals or stoplights.
By putting in stoplights when a hurricane was coming?
What sense does that make?
I like to know how much money lost to shut the state down ?
Liberals good at wasting OUR tax money!
They feel entitled to it. I just had a liberal say something to me about my straw. I told him I paid for that straw and would do anything I liked with it. I then laid in to him over his voting habits. They are getting worse by the day. I have vowed to keep my foot up their a$$ seven days a week and twice on Sunday.
Wow, look at everyone Monday Morning Quarterbacking, putting a lot of faith in the accuracy of a computer model but yet you are the same who will deny the model of climate change.
That statement has nothing to do with being liberal. It does say a lot about how people pick and choose what science to believe.
Horse hockey, tokenny.
Nothing but piffle in what you said.
There is no relationship between the model of climate change, which incidentally, I believe you are a denier of, at least as respects the contribution of waste heat from nuclear power generation, and what this hurricane was going to do when it came over land.
Name a hurricane, tokenny, that has come over land and strengthened.
It doesn’t happen.
They get weaker.
It’s called hurricane scicnce, tokenny, not Monday morning quarterbacking.
Check out the Hurricane Scicnce website on the subject, to wit:
Interaction between a Hurricane and the Land
As a hurricane approaches land, portions of the outer circulation start to include air originating over land.
This land-based air is cooler and drier than the air in the hurricane that originated over water.
This portion of the circulation over land is initially efficient in transporting the cooler, drier air towards the center of the hurricane because of the increased friction over land relative to over the ocean (see Primary Circulation).
In the right-front quadrant of the hurricane, the variation in inflow can help create areas of strong air convergence in the lower troposphere.
These convergence zones provide a favorable environment for outer rainbands that are capable of severe weather, including tornadoes, well before the storm center crosses the coast.
In the hours prior to landfall, hurricanes typically pass over cooler ocean shelf water, which can limit hurricane intensity relative to warmer ocean water further off the coast (see Hurricane Development: From Birth to Maturity).
This temperature difference between ocean shelf water and ocean water further off the coast may be even larger below the sea surface than at the sea surface, which may further limit hurricane intensity near the coast but prior to landfall (see Interaction Between a Hurricane and the Ocean).
Atmospheric fronts and regions of strong vertical wind shear are often present near the coast.
When a coastal front interacts with a hurricane prior to landfall, cooler, drier air may be transported into one side of the hurricane, leading to weakening.
Enhanced vertical wind shear also typically weakens a hurricane.
When one or more of the processes described above leads to weakening of a hurricane in the hours before landfall, the hurricane’s wind field is often observed to expand in size.
This wind field expansion can be explained by a physical law called conservation of angular momentum.
Sometimes, outer portions of the hurricane may experience increased wind speeds even though the maximum wind speed is decreasing, as in the case of Hurricane Katrina (2005).
While the intensity reduction may be welcomed from the standpoint of anticipated wind damage at landfall, the wind field expansion may be equally or more dangerous because of increased risks from storm surge and waves.
Wind field expansion increases the fetch, defined as the distance the wind travels over the sea surface, which allows increased wave development that can contribute to both storm surge and wave damage.
During landfall, as the eyewall begins to cross the coast, differences between the air friction caused by the ocean and the land cause the wind field to become less symmetric around the hurricane’s center, and lead to areas of enhanced air convergence and divergence in certain regions of the hurricane.
The regions can affect the distribution of convection and rainfall, but primarily they contribute to a large variation in wind speed and gustiness over a small area (land causes the wind to be more gusty).
As air in the hurricane crosses the coast from ocean to land, the air flow responds to the new underlying surface with about 80% of the adjustment occurring a few hundred meters inland but the remaining 20% taking tens of kilometers to occur.
The gustiness over the ocean is on the order of 10% but may increase to 20-30% or more over land (where there is increased friction), depending on the roughness of the land surface.
Therefore, steady winds over land may be lower than over the ocean due to higher roughness, but the winds over land may have higher gusts.
Flow over complex terrain is much more complicated, with localized wind maxima occurring on exposed hillsides where air flow may accelerate over bluff shaped hilltops to more than double the wind speed of the surrounding air.
By the time the hurricane’s center crosses the coast, the inflowing wind speed has increased to over half the primary circulation’s wind speed, so drier (and often cooler) air is fueling over half the eyewall, resulting in rapid weakening.
The expansion of the wind field continues, but now much of the outer part of the hurricane’s circulation is experiencing enhanced roughness over land, so the size of the tropical storm and hurricane strength wind fields begin to decrease and eventually dissipate.
As usual Paul your response is completely off topic or are you looking to hijack this thread too?
The topic was whether the Governor was a little premature is ordering Zone A to evacuate. Many people here commented that the weather models had it hitting well south, which it did but it was + or – 120 miles on either side. “Models” have been pointing to climate change yet these same people who believe the weather one won’t believe the climate one, I find that interesting.
Now in defense of the Governor as of Monday the storm rose from a Cat 3 to a Cat 4, with the potential of landing as a cat 4. The Navy had moved all the ships out to sea from Norfolk and on Monday sent all the planes to other bases. ( jeez, no one questioned the expense of that, did they ?)
What everyone knows Paul and you didn’t have to do the massive cut and paste, is that other than a direct hit being on the north side of a hurricane sucks. Typically, massive winds and rain. Another thing that you don’t know Paul, because you really don’t know anything about anything South of Binghamton, NY ,is that the Hampton Roads area ( think Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, and Newport News) floods on a normal heavy rain. The prediction was that it was a slow moving storm, with a large amount of rain and with the northeasterly winds water would be building up in the bays. So flooding was going to be pronounced. It wasn’t until Tuesday at around 3pm that they pinpointed landfall and said the storm was decreasing in category
Always better to be safe than sorry.
Mr Sacco, what is the going rate nowadays in US dollars for a life? What business did they lose? If you needed to do something on Tuesday that you couldn’t do I guess you could do it today – didn’t lost any money on that, did they. Hey, they even saved money – all those buildings they shut down and turned off the electric, all those workers who didn’t get paid for that day. Damn the State probably came out ahead.
Liberalism in a man, is as dangerous as rabies in a dog
The question was where does the Constitution of the State of Virginia give the governor of Virginia the authority, jurisdiction and discretion to issue an order requiring people to leave the safety of their homes to have to go somewhere else where the governor cannot guarantee their safety, tokenny.
And that applies to the governor of North Carolina, as well.
As for the Navy, tokenny, of course they moved their boats.
That is what they do, because they have hundreds of years of accumulated knowledge of how to ride out storms.
Apples and oranges, tokenny.
Moving some boats out to sea when a storm is coming is hardly comparable to some governor making himself into a little tin-pot dictator by ordering millions of people out of their homes when a storm is coming.
And guess what, tokenny, the storm is now north of Binghampton, New York and the rain is pouring down as I type these words, countering your blatant attempt to hijack this thread with your wild accusations about people in here being climate-science deniers – you know, people who don’t think waste heat from nuclear power generation has any effect on the environment.
Should we have been ordered out of our houses?
I mean, it is the same hurricane, and it is raining, and there are a lot of poorly designed and poorly drained areas up here that flood as well.
Virginia isn’t the only state, afterall, that approves subdivisions in areas that have flooded for years in the lightest of rains.
Should we too have been ordered by Young Andy Cuomo to flee, to run like hell to somewhere else and join the huge traffic jam?
There are flash flood warnings for the whole state, afterall, so wouldn’t we all be a lot safer if we fled to say, Colorado?
Now, if, as you say, the Hampton Roads area ( think Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, and Newport News) floods on a normal heavy rain, then it sounds like poor design and poor maintenance to me, and those people certainly should have given some thought as to why they would want to live in such a place, but what does that have to do with the governor’s blanket order to evacuate a large area outside that flood-prone area?
And we are talking HYPING, tokenny.
We get that crap each winter up here to the north of you – OMG, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES, KILLER STORM COMING, BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY, STOCK UP ON A MONTH’S WORTH OF SUPPLIES – and then we get six inches of snow.
It’s bull****, tokenny.
And what is the going rate nowadays in US dollars for a life?
Not much, tokenny, and I’m surprised a savvy dude like you does not know that.
But to help you cure your ignorance, which I am always happy to do, to be of assistance to you that way as an act of fellowship, as of 2011, the Environmental Protection Agency set the value of a human life at $9.1 million while, the Food and Drug Administration put it at $7.9 million, and the Department of Transportation figure was around $6 million.
Stanford University has it actually closer to about $129,000.
What figure does Northam use?
Are you being paid to drum up BS here? Do you understand what hijacking a thread means? When you walk into a room, is there a mass exit of people from said room?
“The question was where does the Constitution of the State of Virginia give the governor of Virginia the authority, jurisdiction ….”, no, that wasn’t a question. Go ahead and reread the replies, not there! It was just you, trying to turn this into something else, as usual.
Governors have the right to order evacuation by Statue. You know those Statues that say you have to have a licenses to be a Doctor, that you need a license to drive a car., which by the way isn’t in any Constitution either.
“As for the Navy, tokenny, of course they moved their boats.
That is what they do, because they have hundreds of years of accumulated knowledge of how to ride out storms.” Well if they are prudent in that case why wouldn’t the Governor protect what he is responsible for.
Paul, i won’t be responding to you any further in this thread. For I know that you will have diarrhea of the mouth (keyboard?), you will use my name in a condescending fashion in your response(s) and I won’t be surprised if in those response you will manage to mention that you are a Vietnam Vet. It’s getting old Paul.
tokenny, you are such a HOOT!
People in the world who look forward to your presence in these discussions love it when you lose your cool and start going off on people like you just did above here.
You have made the day of millions of people not only in America but in the candid world as well who look to you for the entertainment value you just gave them with that tirade.
As to Virginia, specifically, tokenny, it has what is known to the rest of America as infamous “magic marker” tactics of coastal Virginia, where citizens refusing to evacuate are given pens and instructed to write their social security numbers on themselves so that their remains can be identified.
As to the “emergency” which would have justified the evacuation order pursuant to the police power of the “state” which is rooted in the obligation to secure the public welfare, see my chronology posted elsewhere in here, which shows what governor Northam should have known and when he should have known it, given that it was public information available and easily accessible to everyone in America who pays attention to the news as they ought to as American citizens, which includes you, tokenny, as well.
And speaking of hi-jacking this thread, tokenny, to make it about something other than what it is about, which is governor Northam’s evacuation order, what on earth does someone being a Viet Nam veteran have to do with being able to read the news each day to determine where this hurricane was going to go?
Are you saying that if governor Northam had been a Viet Nam veteran, he would have been able to have made a better judgment in this case than the one he did make?
As an aside, how many times can these politicians keep screaming and hollering about the sky is going to fall, or keep crying wolf when no wolf is in sight, before people stop listening and tell them to go to hell?
This is just to say, people, that I think tokenny is a real swell guy and a prince, to boot!
Your words show just how perfectly indoctrinated you really are.
The data points necessary to ‘model’ a hurricane are infinitesimal compared to the vast volume of data required to even guesstimate an event that complex.
Ergo, those who THINK rather than emote understand the cone represents a multitude of data sets correlated into a pictoral view of possible landings.
Glug glug glug, Token. Enjoy your kool aid.
Note: In this case, sophisticated models were not really needed, old fashioned meteorology, which indicated a massive trough over New England would limit the storm’s ability to move north of the Outer Banks. That proved to be the case, as it made landfall just about where ‘weathermen’ expected it would. The problem with a mandatory evacuation, is if it turns out like this (that is you are totally wrong), then when the time comes to truly evacuate, no one will (you’ve already cried wolf). Some things should be used judiciously. Oh, and the Navy sorties ships for most weather events like this, or even lesser ones…the dock is the most dangerous place for them.
Oh, and btw? I actually agree with you on this topic. Better safe than sorry. I do think we’ve gotten a bit overblown in our reactions, but do think that erring on the side of caution was sensible.
But state workers get paid whether or not the lights are on. If the State closed, the workers got paid.
There is some irony here, Mike, in the fact that Florence did in fact turn north and it did in fact ravage Virginia, just not the parts of Virginia that Northam ordered to be evacuated.
Flash-flood warnings were in effect Monday night across parts of far southern Virginia, where several tornadoes were confirmed Monday by storm spotters.
One of those tornadoes hit Chesterfield County south of Richmond, causing a building collapse that killed one person and mountainous parts of southern Virginia were at risk of flooding, mudslides and landslides due to Florence’s heavy rains on Monday.
But not a word from the governor concerning the fate of any of those people.
So much for better safe than sorry and erring on the side of caution.
Those are the people Northam should have been concerned about, the ones in the actual path of the storm, which Northam would have known about far in advance of the storm turning north and causing that destruction.
Why the governor’s silence?
If he was really erring on the side of caution, you would think he would have pulled those people out of the real path of the storm by ordering them evacuated.
Why wouldn’t the Governor protect what he is responsible for, Mike?
Was that person killed by the tornado less important in Northam’s eyes than some ONE PERCENTER with his million dollar McMansion right above the high tide mark on Virginia’s ocean front?
Not to put too fine a point on it, but while we are talking about “better safe than sorry” and “erring on the side of caution,” wouldn’t that policy have been much better enacted by telling all those people who had to be evacuated that “NO, YOU CAN’T BUILD THERE” in a flood zone or where ocean waves are going to wash you away because all; the taxpayers who don’t live in places where it is stupid to live don’t want to have to pay extra for emergency responders to have to come and save you from your ******* stupidity?
And the state can’t say “oh, we didn’t know it was ******* stupid and dangerous to put houses at the high tide mark or in a flood plain where even a little rain makes it flood!”
Does the state of Virginia not know that hurricanes are a year event?
Is the state of Virginia not aware that each year, we have been getting more rain?
So the negligence of the state and its desire for tax dollars is what allowed those people to be there in harm’s way in the first place, and yes, that impacts everybody in this country, that negligence and stupidity by the state, because then the federal taxpayers have to come in and bail those people out who were harmed by that negligence.
So no, Mike,. we haven’t gotten a bit overblown in our reactions.
The problem of the American people today is too much acceptance of stupidity and gross negligence on the part of our public officials that creates the potential for harm in the first place.
Believing and acting with common sense are two different things.
5 days of forecasting is far different than OH MY GOD THE SKY IS GONNA BURN……….some other day, better let me destroy your economy HERE but not THERE so we can fix that sorta kinda maybe problem.
But tells ya what, Token……….YOU go first………sell your house and all your possessions and move outside. Lower your ‘carbon footprint’ to zero.
Show us how it’s done. Vero Possusmus………
One has to wonder, if one is given to wonder, which all American citizens over the 18 are supposed to do when the subject of government is under discussion, as is the case here, where any of these governors get the authority, jurisdiction and discretion from to order millions of people to have to leave their homes and possessions to go somewhere else, with that somewhere else being totally undefined by these governors issuing these orders.
“We don’t care where you go, or how you get there, or what you do when you do get there, you just cannot stay in your own home on your own property because we don’t think it will be safe, even though we don’t really have evidence something will happen there to make it unsafe; just run like hell and hide somewhere because we are ordering you to!”
North Carolina has been turned into a looter’s paradise by the governor of North Carolina as a result.
Mike you should call your doctor, pronto! I’m detecting signs of a stroke in your writing, you know: difficultly speaking, inability to make any sense. Those things . Hurry up now. .
With a storm of that potential, size and unpredictability I feel Northam’s call for evacuation was on point. I’ve seen many storms turn at the last minute and totally devastate everything in it’s path. Also tidal flooding on the lower and coastal Eastern Shore is a huge concern, as it doesn’t take much and a hurricane the size of Flo could have been deadly. Evacuation if called, must be done early so people can prepare their property, move out and not cause traffic congestion. Now that the storm has passed and we were spared everyone wants to condemn Northam’s call to evacuate. I’m thankful he was concerned for all Virginians.
Note: It was clear, as of Tuesday morning, that unless the massive trough of high pressure somehow dissipated, there was little chance of a storm like that to reach above the Outer Banks. This turned out to be the case, and issuing a mandatory evacuation nearly a week ahead of landfall was not needed.
The first notice I had of this storm was the Reuters article “Gordon dumps heavy rains, Hurricane Florence barrels toward Bermuda” by Kathy Finn on 6 September 2018, as follows:
In the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Florence, a Category 3 storm on a five-step scale, barreled toward Bermuda on Thursday, packing maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour (mph) (185 km per hour).
Florence will continue to weaken during the next couple of days, but “is expected to remain a strong hurricane for the next several days,” the NHC said.
end quotes
Two days before that, the Associated Press had a story “Over 300 people evacuated from flooded Kansas college town” on 4 September 2018, wherein we learned as follows:
MANHATTAN, Kan. — Heavy rain caused a creek to burst its banks and flood the Kansas college town of Manhattan, forcing more than 300 people to evacuate their homes, including some who were ferried to dry land in boats.
Nearly 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain fell from Sunday night into Monday.
“It was one of the most significant events that we’ve experienced in my history here,” Manhattan city manager Ron Fehr said at news conference Monday.
“Things got flooded this time that have never been flooded before, even some of the rural areas.”
Another 1 to 2 inches (2.5 to 5 centimeters) is forecast for the area through Thursday, and a flood watch is in effect through 7 p.m. Tuesday, says Brandon Drake, a National Weather Service meteorologist.
end quotes
So, just as my suppressed atmospheric model predicted way back in 1975, regardless of where you are, there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere where it is unstable and waiting to come down by the bucketful.
Soon enough, there are going to be people having to evacuate all over the place, but that is a story for another day.
Then, 2 days before the Northam Evac Order came down, CNN had a story “Florence is forecast to strengthen again and threaten US East Coast next week” by Jason Hanna on 8 September 2018, which stated as follows:
More and more, Florence is looking like a storm that may give the US East Coast problems as a potentially major hurricane next week.
Tropical Storm Florence, currently in the Atlantic about 1,500 miles from the coast, is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday, and continue gaining power for days.
And computer models increasingly are showing it could be dangerously close to the United States late Thursday.
The window for the storm to miss the US coast and turn harmlessly back to sea is closing, CNN forecasters said.
“The models are … really starting to favor a landfall around the Carolinas,” though states to the north should watch as well, CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar said Saturday morning.
“If you live anywhere in this region (from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic), pay very close attention to this storm.”
end quotes
Having been told that information by the news, one must wonder if there are really people out there in America over the age of 18 so clueless that they actually wouldn’t know what to do to protect themselves unless an actual governor had to come and personally tell them a big storm was coming and they should consider where they live and act accordingly, but from the comments in here, one must assume that really is the case, as hard as it is to believe.
But if one reads “The Johnstown Flood” by David McCullough, one does ge5t an understanding that there are such people in America, sheep-like creatures who do need the guiding hand of a shepard like Governor Northam to lead them on the path to safety they would never be able to find on their own, so I guess it is hooray for the savior Northam.
Getting back to the CNN article, it stated further as follows:
Why Florence is expected to strengthen
Florence already had been the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic season earlier this week, but wind shear weakened it to a tropical storm.
On Saturday morning, Florence’s center had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
But the shear is abating and the storm is approaching warmer waters — conditions that could allow Florence to become a hurricane by Sunday and a major hurricane — meaning a Category 3 storm or greater — by Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said.
end quotes
Then Fox News had a story “Florence strengthens into a hurricane, threatens to hit Southeast US” by Katherine Lam on 9 September 2018, which stated:
Florence regained hurricane strength Sunday and is expected to “rapidly intensify” into a major storm in the next few days as it continues its path toward the East Coast where residents are preparing for the worst.
Florence could hit the southeastern U.S. coast late this week as a Category 3 or higher and bring upon life-threatening impacts.
The hurricane is expected to make landfall between late Thursday and Friday morning.
“There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a prolonged heavy rainfall event inland,” the National Hurricane Center said in an update at 11 a.m.
“However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it’s too soon to determine the exact timing, location and magnitude of those impacts,” the center reported.
Florence continues to move west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds at 75 mph.
Florence’s path shows it will most likely make landfall between Charleston, South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
end quotes
So that is what we knew on the 9th – that it was likely to make landfall between Charleston, South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which is pretty much. what it actually did.
But the Fox News article continued as follows, to wit:
Officials in the Carolinas, as well as Virginia, began preparing Friday for the storm’s potential major impact.
A state of emergency was declared in South Carolina and Virginia to give officials and residents enough time to prepare for Florence if it hits the area.
Florence was a Category 4 hurricane last week, the first of the 2018 Atlantic season.
end quotes
So was the state of emergency in Virginia on the premature side given what was known on the 9th?
Or again, is it a case that unless the governor actually did tell people a storm might come, that they would be so mindless they wouldn’t know themselves?
I have been through a hurricane or two myself, as well as many other storms, including nor’easters and blizzards which make a hurricane seem tame by comparison, and we were always responsible for ourselves.
We never needed a governor to have to come and hold us by the hand to tell us it was going to rain or snow.
But that was then, and this is obviously now, and people today like to hear these governors speaking to them in a command voice like generals on a battlefield moving troops around because it makes them feel special and wanted in an otherwise cold, callous and cruel world where nobody really cares if they get washed away or not because they were stupid enough to build their McMansion just above the high-tide mark on the ocean shore.
The following day, USA TODAY had a story “Hurricane Florence strengthens to potentially ‘catastrophic’ Category 4 storm” by John Bacon and Doyle Rice on 10 September 2018, that informed us and Virginia governor Northam as follows:
A coastal North Carolina county on Monday issued a mandatory evacuation order for its entire population as Hurricane Florence strengthened to a Category 4 storm and continued its slow but angry dance toward the U.S. East Coast.
The National Hurricane Center said Florence is expected to slam into the coast around North and South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Thursday or Friday.
end quotes
So the models on the 10th still have it hitting far south of Virginia.
The day after that, the Washington Post advised governor Northam, assuming he reads newspapers, in the story “Hurricane Florence could be a lot like Harvey. Here’s why.” by Greg Porter on 11 September 2018, as follows:
A ridge of high pressure, extreme especially for this time of year, will develop just off the coast of New England, shunting the path of Florence toward the southeast coast.
The strength of this ridge will be unprecedented in 30 years, according to forecast models.
With such a strong area of high pressure directly to the north of Florence, the storm has no pathway to curve out to sea as many other tropical systems usually do.
Florence will be forced to the west, passing over an environment that is extremely favorable for intensification and on a collision course with the East Coast.
end quotes
But let’s give governor Northam the benefit of the doubt here, by assuming that since he is a politician, and not a weatherman, that he would be totally clueless, like his followers, as to what a ridge of high pressure, extreme especially for this time of year, unprecedented in 30 years, developing just off the coast of New England and shunting the path of Florence toward the southeast coast, really did mean, so that he would be justified in thinking Florence really would turn north and strike Virginia.
That assumption would pretty much put this story to bed then, in favor of governor Northam, which seems to be what the majority of people want to have happen, that governor Northam emerge from this episode looking like a hero, so that is what they should get, being in the majority, afterall.
As to where Florence was predicted to make landfall as of the 11th, the Washington Post article stated as follows:
The GFS model shows Florence making landfall in North Carolina on Thursday night and then stalling out for the next 48 hours.
The development, position and ultimate strength of the aforementioned high-pressure system will be the ultimate determining factor on where Florence goes and if (and where) the storm stalls out.
Forecast models have generally come into agreement on the strength and placement of the high as Florence approaches the coast — hence, the better agreement on a track forecast.
end quotes
But one can commiserate with governor Northam playing it safe by keeping his own counsel and ignoring those forecasts and assuming Florence really would strike Virginia, instead, that despite an article in the CHARLOTTE OBSERVER entited “When is Hurricane Florence expected to make landfall in the Carolinas?” by Mark Price on 12 September 2018, as follows:
The National Hurricane Center issued its first set of hurricane and storm surge watches Tuesday for the East Coast as Hurricane Florence continues its trek toward North Carolina.
A “probable” track of Category 4 Hurricane Florence continues to show the storm hitting the North Carolina coast, though it appears the predicted landfall is edging north of Wilmington toward the Outer Banks, according to the latest maps issued by the National Weather Service.
end quotes
Let’s face it, people, even though the models said the storm would hit pretty much where it really did hit, we all know how inaccurate those models really are, so governor Northam was justified in not believing them, and instead thinking Florence really would hit Virginia.
The following day, Marketwatch had an article “Hurricane Florence is slowing but still expected to hammer parts of eastern coastline for days” by Ciara Linnane published Sept. 13, 2018 11:28 p.m. ET, which stated as follows:
The outer band of rains from Hurricane Florence, expected to bring life-threatening storm surges and several feet of rainfall, approached the North Carolina coastline on Thursday, with forecasters warning that a slight weakening of wind speed did not mean the storm will not cause major damage.
Florence was last located about 60 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, N.C., with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles an hour, after the slow-moving storm was downgraded to a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
At 11 p.m. Eastern, heavy rainbands with tropical-storm-force winds were spreading over the North Carolina coast, the NHC said in an advisory.
“A turn toward the west- northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected by tonight and continuing into Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday,” said the advisory.
That will put the center of the storm close to the coasts of North and South Carolina later Thursday then near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina tonight and on Friday.
end quotes
To bring this history to a close, the Tribune News Service had a story entitled “Florence downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm, at least 5 dead in NC” by Abbie Bennett, Noah Feit and Paul A. Specht, The News & Observer (Raleigh, N.C.) on 15 September 2018, which pretty much conformed that what the models said would happen actually did happen, despite any doubts governor Northam might have had, to wit:
RALEIGH, N.C. – Florence was downgraded Friday afternoon from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm dropped to sustained winds of 70 mph, which is where they remained at 8 p.m. EDT.
A Category 1 hurricane must have winds of at least 74 mph.
At 8 p.m., Florence was moving to the west at 3 mph, according to the NHC, which reported it was in “extreme eastern South Carolina.”
Florence is forecast to continue its slow track to the west-southwest through South Carolina into Saturday, the NHC reported.
The storm will move generally north across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
The “erratic” storm made landfall Friday morning near Wrightsville Beach, as North Carolina first responders and the governor reported the first five deaths associated with the storm.
‘North Carolina’s Famous Wild Horses Emerge from Hurricane Florence Unscathed’ ????
How could this possibly be, without an elected Liberal’s intervention?